All At Sea

I should have seen it coming. Over the last few months, friends in Australia have been sending me anti Rudd emails that were getting more and more obnoxious. So much so, that I have been trashing them daily. It was sad to see Kevin Rudd being ridiculed and then humbled after winning an election and riding high in the polls. The words are so true in the song ‘A Rhinestone Cowboy’ - “Where hustle is the name of the game … nice guys get washed away like the snow and the rain.”

Julia Gillard will now be Australia’s first woman Prime Minister and judging from her media exposure over the last few years, I think she will make a good fist of the job. She appears to be intelligent, quick witted, very articulate and politically astute. She also seems to have a rare combination of compassion and a realistic approach to implementing her party’s policies.

I saw on TV that her father is British. With her flaming auburn hair and fair complexion, I wonder Julia Gillard’s backers see her as a kind of Aussie reincarnation of Boudicia. Tony Abbot (Leader of the Opposition) is marshalling his legions around the Australian Parliament and it remains to be seen if this new Warrior Queen will see them off into the outback later this year.

John Key was the first world leader off the block to congratulate Prime Minister Gillard, which demonstrated his (almost unseemly) keenness to keep close in touch with Australian leaders. He knows how important our relationship with Australia is. Even if we are not keeping up with our large neighbour economically, at least we can use our cell phones to remind them we are still here.

He also had some revealing comments to the press on the speed of the political changes in Australia. Such as, “it shows the brutal side of politics” and “You have to keep close to your caucus and obviously the people.” The fate of Kevin Rudd is obviously a sobering reminder of how polls can distort a politician’s judgment.

It appears that Kevin Rudd neglected to remember this reality of Westminster style democracy and fatally adopted a presidential style of leadership. Julia Gillard is very unlikely to make the same mistake. She learnt the hard way and she knows she will lose elections without the support from the various factions of the Australian Labour Party. Her next job is to negotiate peace with the intense opposition to the mining taxes and the Aussie version of our own Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

Illegal immigration is another issue and there are many Australians who miss John Howard’s firm action in that area. His latest successor, Tony Abbot, seems to promise much the same (along with Howard’s economic policies). As Julia Gillard prepares to take him on (politically) she might be singing other lyrics from ‘Rhinestone Cowboy’ in the shower. “There’s been a load of compromising on the road to my horizon, but I’m gonna be where the lights are shining on me!”

3D Or Not 3D?

I was really blown away by the film Avatar. The fact that animators from Weta Workshops in Wellington had a hand in it, also gave me an extra buzz. I have friends who also saw it in 3D in an Auckland cinema and they said it was even more fantastic that way. So when SkyCity in Whangarei gets its own 3D setup I will make a point of seeing it again there.

I thought I might even get to see Avatar on a 3D TV as well, because I was aware that new 3D TV technology was making its debut in appliance shops this year. I can imagine that thousands youngsters, especially those into gaming, will soon be pestering their hapless parents into getting one. “Hey, Dad the footy looks choice in 3D – like being there!”

Alas, there always seems to be a fly in the ointment. The more I researched this article, the more I realized that 3D TV might be further away than I thought for most households. Some people are warning that 3D TV might be unsuitable for those who: are in bad physical condition, need sleep or have been drinking alcohol, prone to light sensitive seizures, some teenagers, the elderly or children under six.

Wow, that rules a lot of us out right away. If you escape that group, you also might find other problems too. For example, having difficulties viewing from a wide angle and also getting up for a comfort stop or making a cup of tea when you take the special 3D glasses off.

For many of us, it sounds as though regular digital 3D viewing could be tough going. Dr. Deborah Friedman, from the University of Rochester Medical Center in New York, has been reported to say, “The illusion that you see in the movies is not exactly calibrated the same way as that your eyes and brain are.”

Another American professor in ophthalmology from Chicago seems to agree and adds, “There are a lot of people walking around with very minor eye problems, for example, a minor eye imbalance, which under normal circumstances, the brain deals with naturally. In a 3D movie these people are confronted with an entirely different experience that translates into greater mental effort, making it easier to get a headache.”

This sort of information gives me the willies and I cannot see many buyers stampeding into shops and forking out large sums of money to buy these new expensive TVs (plus glasses and a Blue Ray Player). Mind you, my 15 year old Philips CRT TV has its own dangers too. It makes images with an electron gun and it is not too healthy for your eyes either.

All this appears to me to add up to one conclusion. You cannot beat getting outside for a real 3D experience by working, swimming, tramping, fishing and playing sport etc. When you come home tired, you can hit the sack for a free session of 3D dreams - after some other pleasurable bedtime pursuits of course.

Norgate

There seems to be very few comments from Craig Norgate in the media these days. Which is not very surprising of course, since his investment balloon burst in last year’s recession. An estimated one billion dollars of value apparently evaporated during his watch and severely affected the fortunes of his friends, business partners and shareholders.

The New Zealand Herald recently ran some very well researched articles on the misadventures of Craig Norgate in the market place. Columnist, Brian Gaynor, saw the cause of Norgate’s rise and fall due to making three classic mistakes. These were also made by corporate leaders in the nineteen eighties. As Brian Gaynor puts it, “they expanded far too rapidly with too much debt and not enough equity”.

The complex history of how this happened is beyond the scope of this article. However, it probably shows the danger of weak boards of directors letting charismatic leaders move companies outside prudent restraint and expose shareholders to excessive risk. Leaders with flair and imagination often need competent bean counters to keep them on the rails.

The nineteen eighties should have been a clear reminder that easy access to debt fuels the illusion of growth. Paper profits soon disappear when markets contract and the time inevitably comes to pay debts off. Even so, statements from farming leaders make it clear that Craig Norgate still has some mana in the rural sector. The fact he took huge risks is seen as entrepreneurial and farmers seem to admire people with guts who give things a go – even if the odds are stacked against you.

Even so, it has not gone un-noticed that his own personal finances appear to remain in good shape and suggests that his exposure to company collapses will be minimal. If that is the case, then like other corporate adventurers in the nineteen eighties, he will parachute safely out of the reach of liquidators.

Craig Norgate’s various roles with the Kiwi Co-operative Dairies company, Fonterra and PGG Wrightson were very lucrative and he no doubt has the means to rise again. New Zealand is losing its attraction for him and he has been making noises of moving overseas. I think is very likely that we will see the re-emergence of the Norgate Starship Enterprise “Going where no man has gone before”. No man prudent man that is, who likes to keep his money warm in his own wallet.

Hedging Your Bets

When Hamish parted the curtains in his front room, he could see the Jackson’s place on the other side of the street. Every night their house was a blaze of light and it appeared to him that they switched on every light bulb as a rude gesture of defiance against energy conservation. They were noisy too with their large teenage family coming and going at all hours of the night.

If Hamish was to get any sleep at all he had to use ear plugs to defend himself against the deep booming music resonating out of the Jackson’s old cars and stereos. To his ears it was jungle music. Primitive stuff that provoked undesirable impulses and headaches.

“Not surprising really,” he mumbled to himself, as he washed the dishes after getting hot water from a pot whistling on the wood stove. “Just look at the way they have the telly on most of the time. The poor kids are saturated with the propaganda produced by the false gods of mindless consumerism.”

“When the crash comes, I’ll take them out into the bush and re-educate them in the ways of our ancestors. They can then plug into something that is really good for them. A huge cosmic jigsaw puzzle is coming together as I predicted years ago. All the signs are there. A Holy War in the Middle East, terrorists attacking every Western country and AIDS spreading everywhere like the plague.”

Hamish was well prepared. His veggie garden would help him survive ok. It was so productive that he was able to fill his freezer and pack his garage with preserved fruit and pickles. He took pride in being self-sufficient and spent as little as possible on things he could not make or grow himself. He had such a low power bill that the power company even sent an electrician out to see if his meter was being bypassed.

One day, the power meter reader came unexpectedly to Hamish’s front door. He gave Hamish a new hand held device that the power company was trialing - called the ‘Brownlee Bingo’. He explained to Hamish that it could calculate power consumption and pay household accounts. “And what, might I ask, are those coloured buttons for?” inquired Hamish.

“Oh those ones take you onto the Energy Hedge Market. You can take a punt on the Australian Stock Exchange and invest your savings to offset increased power prices.” Hamish thanked the man and took this new technological marvel into his garden. His face was beaming like a miner who had struck gold.

“All my work will not be in vain!” he shouted. “I once thought that The System would collapse from outside forces, but now I see we are going to do it ourselves by ruinous gambling!”

Across the road, Moana Jackson called out to one of her sons, who was busy fixing his car on the driveway, “Hey Sam turn down your stereo will you. Poor old Hamish is having one of his fits again.”

Don't Bank On It Bill

I was expecting to tackle Bill English’s mid term budget in this article and tell you how surprised I was to see low income earners get a tax cut along with the rich (I suspect a John Key influence in that PR masterstroke). No such luck, the furore over comments made by Bill English on the future of Kiwibank swamped my enthusiasm like a tidal wave.

There always seems to be a group of politicians around Parliament who despise community owned enterprises – no matter how successful they are. These days, state owned enterprises (SOEs) and co-operatives are an anathema to monetarist die-hards.

In their eyes, private ownership (foreign and local) is the only way to go to create prosperity regardless of plain evidence to the contrary - like stock market crashes and massive private enterprise credit frauds that threatened world wide social stability.

In New Zealand, SOEs and co-operatives seem to work very well in our mixed economy. I get a buzz seeing them successfully competing in the market place and assisting kiwi owned private enterprises. Kiwibank is one of them and I am now sad to see its ownership status threatened by Bill English.

It was set up to provide New Zealand owned competition for the Australian owned banks who grabbed over ninety percent of the banking market. Right from the start, Kiwibank performed brilliantly. It has almost repaid all of the Government sourced capital in dividends and most financial analysts agree that it has restrained Aussie owned bank interest rates and their administration charges.

Bill English claims that Kiwibank needs a lot more capital - but Kiwibank management and its Board Chairman, Jim Bolger, deny this. In 2009 it had 650,000 customers, assets of $10 billion, account holder loans of $7.7 billion and had an asset yield not much lower than its Aussie owned competition. In other words, it is well run and deserves its rapidly increasing customer base (passing 700,00 in 2010).

After a period of uncertainty, John Key has apparently decided against the sale of any part of Kiwibank, “as long as I’m Prime Minister”. Any plans to sell other state assets will be announced well before the next election. I wonder if Sir Keith Holyoake’s recipe for winning elections is influencing our Prime Minister?

Holyoake supported SOEs and championed rural co-operatives. New Zealand owned private enterprises prospered and home ownership rose to record levels. He managed Labour’s social reforms and the National Government took a nationalist approach to investment. In my opinion, these policies were popular and contributed to winning four elections.

In sharp contrast, Bill English led the National party to a record election loss in 2002. Obviously, the New Zealand electorate rejected his brand of politics and also those of his monetarist successor, Don Brash, in the following election.

I think a lot of John Key’s popularity comes from his ability to feel the shifts and mood of voter sentiment. Like Sir Keith, he knows he will need to neutralize the unpopular intentions of his colleagues if he wishes to win future elections.

Stairways To Heaven

About seven years ago, it was announced that an American led team had finally worked out the basic structure of the human genome. I remember thinking at the time, “Well, that’s useful. We will now be able to begin sorting out medical problems caused by defective human genes. I might even take up the opportunity (suggested at the time), to one day finding about my own genetic makeup and ancestral origins.”

Since that announcement, I have hardly given the matter much thought. I was therefore quite surprised to see recently that the same team had created a functioning, man made DNA molecule. They inserted it into a living cell (after removing the cell’s own DNA) and successfully enabled the cell to grow, multiply and carry out the instructions given to it by the synthetic DNA.

This important scientific achievement changes the evolutionary game plan that Mother Nature has played out for millions of years. I have heard some Christian speakers explaining the mountain of evidence proving natural evolutionary changes by describing the process as, “evolution by design.” I can well imagine that many of them will be now quite disturbed to see humans getting on with the job without divine assistance in a laboratory.

Are we now able to play God? Should we stop mucking around with Nature? Dr. Craig Venter, who led the genome project and now the synthetic DNA experiments, has been reported to say that we should not be concerned about this issue or any other kind of scientific progress. He believes that most religions want to improve the life of mankind and scientific knowledge will do this. It all depends on how the discovered information is used and that is an ethical matter.

I needed to know more about this man, so I searched the Internet for more information. I came across a fascinating Youtube video, where Richard Dawkins, the famous science campaigner, interviewed Dr Craig Venter in his hi-tech laboratory (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E25jgPgmzk). They chatted as they walked through some of the rooms that were full of equipment and busy staff members getting results from the many millions of dollars of government and private investment.

It was astonishing to see the amount of grunty computer power being used. One room contained computers that were the equivalent of thirty thousand PCs. What is even more amazing is that new machines coming in will cost less, take up less space and have ten thousand times the current capacity. In five years it might be possible to get a precise read out of your DNA for one thousand American dollars.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that I will be around when they can turn off the gene for aging and offer me another 300 years in a new body (minus a few imperfections of course). It remains to be seen however, if Dr. Venter’s research will be a double helix stairway to heaven, or as some religious commentators fear, a route in the opposite direction.

An Udder Controversy

Earlier this month, AgResearch was obliged to release information about the death of young genetically modified cows. Human genes were inserted into the cow’s eggs at the time of their conception and they later suffered from the rupturing of abnormally enlarged ovaries.

AgResearch staff member, Jimmy Suttie, was reported as saying it was no “big deal” and "This was not intended to happen. But, bluntly, this is what research is all about." The opponents of genetic modification were soon up in arms about the experiments failure and voiced concern about the distress and death of the animals involved. Jon Carapiet, from GE Free NZ, not only pointed the finger at AgResearch, but also to the Environmental Risk Management Authority (ERMA) who are supposed to ensure the safety of these procedures.

ERMA has given AgResearch approval to continue its experiments with cattle, sheep and goats. However, anti genetic engineering (GE) groups have succeeded in getting a Supreme Court hearing later this year to challenge ERMA’s decisions. The recent death of GE cows will certainly not help ERMA to defend its case.

No doubt New Zealand’s reputation as a “Clean Green GE Free” country will be claimed to be at risk in the Supreme Court case. It is a very profitable marketing tool that raises the perception of New Zealand agriculture overseas. Geographic isolation has imposed heavy transport costs on all farm products. So the maintenance of this image will also probably be of some concern to hard nosed business interests who want the best returns from top shelf products.

The AgResearch experiment was trying to get cows to produce follicle stimulating hormones (FSH) to treat human infertility. Dr Elvira Dommise, an ex GE scientist, has cast doubts doubt over the need for the experiments in the first place because she says there are other better and more effective methods to treat infertility.

She also said that she thought that research should be postponed until enough was known about the mammalian genome. When questioned during an interview on TV1 about welfare issues, in a closing statement she said, “animals should not be subjected to this sort of treatment at any stage.”

The Dairy industry in New Zealand already has to cope with its negative “Dirty Dairy” image and Fonterra has been working hard to set a higher standard by pushing ahead with its Clean Streams Accord. Hopefully, market perceptions overseas will not also associate it with messy research outcomes. There will be a time when GE field trials will be asked for by researchers and the industry will have to decide if the present GE free status in dairy herds should be maintained.

Another complication will be factory farming businesses introducing the double whammy of combining GE and intensive methods in enclosed spaces. They are likely to argue that these methods are acceptable, as they will have minimal environmental impact. Commercial pressures to follow world methods and technology will always be unrelenting. For those who resist the worst of these, eternal vigilance will be the price of freedom from GE.

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